Airfares for summer 2026 are climbing at their fastest pace in two years, driven by surging jet fuel costs tied to the widening conflict in the Middle East.

Fares are up 7.1 percent year-over-year, with January prices already rising more than 6 percent month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis. The upward pressure has not slowed into spring.

The core driver is fuel. The U.S. involvement in the Iran conflict has pushed crude oil prices sharply higher, and jet fuel — typically the largest variable cost for airlines — has followed. Disruptions in the region have also effectively erased 10 percent of global airline capacity as carriers reroute flights away from affected airspace.

Airlines are passing costs to passengers directly. Demand has not softened, especially for summer travel, giving carriers little incentive to absorb the increases.

One bright spot: August fares have softened compared to June and July, as more Americans shift their summer trips to the front of the season. Travelers booking now for late-summer travel may find relative value. For long-haul international flights, Asia and Europe are emerging as better value picks, with airfare to those regions down 14 to 16 percent despite the overall trend.